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Big data analytics: Duterte bags 3rd debate, Roxas closes in

Presidentiable Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, greets fellow Presidentiable MAr Roxas, during the 2016 Pilipinas Debate at the PHINMA University of PAngasinan in Dagupan City, April 24, 2016. (MArk BAlmores)

Presidentiable Mayor Rodrigo Duterte greets fellow Presidentiable Mar Roxas during the 2016 Pilipinas Debate at the PHINMA University of PAngasinan in Dagupan City, April 24, 2016. (MB Photo/Mark Balmores)

Based on public engagement on Twitter last Sunday, Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte emerged as the favorite during the third and final leg of the presidential PiliPinas Debates 2016 co-hosted by the Manila Bulletin, ABS-CBN, and the Kapisanan ng mga Brodkaster ng Pilipinas.

Former Interior and Local Government Secretary Manuel “Mar” Roxas II, however, showed much improvement from the second debate among the five candidates.

This was according to the Twitter Sentiment Analysis released by Futuregen International Pte. Ltd. – Manila Bulletin’s partner in data analytics for the said debate.

READ MORE: 3rd presidential debate generates more than 1.24 million tweets

Futuregen analyzed 65,000 tweets from users with at least 300 followers on April 24, 2016 and compared these to the same category of Twitter users from the second debate held on March 20.

According to Futuregen President Wilson Chua, there was a need to filter the tweets by considering only those posted by a user with more than 300 followers to disregard tweets from a hired Twitter army — a collection of accounts which are not owned by a legitimate Twitter user. Chua says such accounts usually have just a few followers.

He said the predicted accuracy of the analytics is 60 percent with a 1.2-point margin of error.

Performance of presidential candidates on Twitter (Graph by Futuregen International Pte. Ltd.)

Performance of presidential candidates during the 3rd PiliPinas presidential debate on Twitter (Graph by Futuregen International Pte. Ltd.)

The graph above shows the number of negative (in blue), neutral (in orange), and positive (in gray) tweets received by Duterte, Roxas, and their rivals: Vice President Jejomar Binay, Senator Grace Poe-Llamanzares, and Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago.

Based on the analyzed data by Futuregen, Duterte received the most number of tweets with a total of 24,212. He also garnered the highest number of positive tweets numbering to 11,057.

Comparing this data to the candidates’ Twitter performance on the second presidential debate when Duterte got a total of 34,723 number of tweets, it can be learned that his numbers actually declined by 30 percent.

Performance of presidential candidates during the 2nd presidential debate on Twitter (Graph by Futuregen International Pte. Ltd.)

Performance of presidential candidates during the 2nd PiliPinas presidential debate on Twitter (Graph by Futuregen International Pte. Ltd.)

Both Roxas and Poe showed improvements with regard to the total number of mention on Twitter.

Roxas’ total mentions on the third debate reached 20,167 and on the second face-off is at 17,188. It showed an increase of 17 percent. His positive mentions increased by 116 percent while his negative mentions decreased by 23 percent.

On the other hand, Poe got 99-percent overall increase from 8,944 total mentions during the second debate to 17,868 total mentions on the third. Positive mentions increased by 24 percent while negative tweets showed a higher increase at 277 percent.

“That may not be good news for Poe”, Chua said. “Duterte wins both debate, but Mar is catching up.”

It can be recalled that Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago was not present during the second presidential debate as it was in conflict with a scheduled visit to her doctors.

READ MORE: Santiago to skip 2nd presidential debate

Futuregen was able to analyze the data through a training set devised by the Metro Dagupan ICT Council from 20,000 tweets out of 65,000 potential tweets from the first PiliPinas Debates 2016 and previous events.

The training set data was scored and labeled to come up with a machine learning software used in the second and third presidential face-offs.

  • Lamon Lamon

    huwag tularan si Roxas ,Duterte ,Binay mga corrupt officials ng bansa
    .ibagsak sila ,huwag iboto sa mayo 9,2016 ang mga mandurugas.

    Saan kaya nangulimbat ni digong-gong ang tinatagong yaman sa bangko
    (milliones) sa bangko ..sabi duterte mahirap lang siya ,simple ang
    buhay .. bakit may 211 millions sa bank account siya ?

    IBAGSAK SI DUTERTE MANGUNGULIMBAT NG YAMAN NG MGA PILIPINO .

    Ibagsak ang mga corrupt candidate na si binay ,roxas at si duterte .They are stealing people’s money .

    IBOTO
    NATIN SI SENADORA GRACE POE ..SIYA AY MAPAGKAKATIWALAN ,MATAPANG
    ,HINDI PUMAPATAY ,MARANGAL ,MATALINO AT PATAS LUMABAN .MABUHAY ANG ATING
    PINUNO SA MAY 09,2016 .

    ANG MGA PILIPINO AY HINDI NAMAN TANGA O
    BOBO NA ANG IBOBOTO NILA AY MAY TUPAK ANG KUKUTI NA KAPARIS NI DUTERTE . IBAGSAK ANG DIKTADOR NG DAVAO CITY ..

    KAILANGAN
    NATIN ANG MAY GOBYERNONG MAY PUSO ,MARUNONG MAGMALASAKIT ,MATALINO
    ,MASIPAG AT KAPAKANAN NG MGA NAKAKAMI ANG KANYANG INISIP … IBOTO NATIN
    SI GRACE POE SA MAYO 09,2016. …

    THE VOTERS WITH A DISTURBED MIND
    WILL ONLY VOTE FOR DUDIRTY ..NO WAY A SANE PERSON WILL EVER ELECT A
    PSYCHO /WACKO PERSON IN MALACANANG .WE NEED GRACE POE THE NEXT PRESIDENT
    IN MAY 09,2016. POE WILL GUIDE US IN PROSPERITY.

    IT IS A FACT THAT DUTERTE IS A VERY DANGEROUS LEADER . HE IS
    EXTREMELY
    IMPULSIVE , HE LOVES HIMSELF TOO MUCH .. WITHOUT REMORSE OF THE THINGS
    HE HAD DONE .. HE HAS A TRAIT OF A CRIMINALS .HE IS SICKLY ,ALWAYS WITH
    MIGRAINE HEADACHE .. HE CAN’T WAKE EARLY IN THE MORNING .HE IS ALWAYS
    LATE IN A MEETING .WE NEED GRACE POE IN MALACANANG PALACE IN MA09,2016
    .. SHE IS VERY COMPETENT ,BRAVE ,RESILIENT ,SINCERE ,COMPASSIONATE,SHE
    WALK THE TALK AND SHE IS PHYSICALLY ,MENTALLY AND EMOTIONALLY FIT FOR
    THE JOB .GO,GO,GO POE… FIGHT LANG POE!

    Mr. Tatad ..there was no lies in Senator Grace Poe candidacy ..you and her

    rivals continues to put a lot of personal attacks and black propaganda

    that has no valid proof .. it all lies black propaganda .THE PEOPLE

    KNEW IT WAS ALL LIES ,LIES ,LIES you are just fooling yourself… Grace

    Poe is still standing tall unlike your Binay the surveys said ..he is

    going to be kulelat .. LOL.

    Thank
    You Ilococandia for supporting Senator Grace Poe ..Let fight ,fight for
    Grace Poe, in the coming may 09,2016 election ..it is not done yet ,it
    is just starting … yahoo mabuhay si Senator Grace Poe THE ONLY CANDIDATE
    WHO IS UNTAINTED ,SINCERE ,COMPETENT ,RESILIENT ,SMART AND BRAVE TO
    FIGHT FOR THE SAKE OF THE PEOPLE.SHE HAS GOBYERNONG MAY PUSO AT GALIN

  • Lamon Lamon

    huwag tularan si Roxas ,Duterte ,Binay mga corrupt officials ng bansa
    .ibagsak sila ,huwag iboto sa mayo 9,2016 ang mga mandurugas.

    Saan kaya nangulimbat ni digong-gong ang tinatagong yaman sa bangko
    (milliones) sa bangko ..sabi duterte mahirap lang siya ,simple ang
    buhay .. bakit may 211 millions sa bank account siya ?

    IBAGSAK SI DUTERTE MANGUNGULIMBAT NG YAMAN NG MGA PILIPINO .

    Ibagsak ang mga corrupt candidate na si binay ,roxas at si duterte .They are stealing people’s money .

    IBOTO
    NATIN SI SENADORA GRACE POE ..SIYA AY MAPAGKAKATIWALAN ,MATAPANG
    ,HINDI PUMAPATAY ,MARANGAL ,MATALINO AT PATAS LUMABAN .MABUHAY ANG ATING
    PINUNO SA MAY 09,2016 .

    ANG MGA PILIPINO AY HINDI NAMAN TANGA O
    BOBO NA ANG IBOBOTO NILA AY MAY TUPAK ANG KUKUTI NA KAPARIS NI DUTERTE . IBAGSAK ANG DIKTADOR NG DAVAO CITY ..

    KAILANGAN
    NATIN ANG MAY GOBYERNONG MAY PUSO ,MARUNONG MAGMALASAKIT ,MATALINO
    ,MASIPAG AT KAPAKANAN NG MGA NAKAKAMI ANG KANYANG INISIP … IBOTO NATIN
    SI GRACE POE SA MAYO 09,2016. …

    THE VOTERS WITH A DISTURBED MIND
    WILL ONLY VOTE FOR DUDIRTY ..NO WAY A SANE PERSON WILL EVER ELECT A
    PSYCHO /WACKO PERSON IN MALACANANG .WE NEED GRACE POE THE NEXT PRESIDENT
    IN MAY 09,2016. POE WILL GUIDE US IN PROSPERITY.

    IT IS A FACT THAT DUTERTE IS A VERY DANGEROUS LEADER . HE IS
    EXTREMELY
    IMPULSIVE , HE LOVES HIMSELF TOO MUCH .. WITHOUT REMORSE OF THE THINGS
    HE HAD DONE .. HE HAS A TRAIT OF A CRIMINALS .HE IS SICKLY ,ALWAYS WITH
    MIGRAINE HEADACHE .. HE CAN’T WAKE EARLY IN THE MORNING .HE IS ALWAYS
    LATE IN A MEETING .WE NEED GRACE POE IN MALACANANG PALACE IN MA09,2016
    .. SHE IS VERY COMPETENT ,BRAVE ,RESILIENT ,SINCERE ,COMPASSIONATE,SHE
    WALK THE TALK AND SHE IS PHYSICALLY ,MENTALLY AND EMOTIONALLY FIT FOR
    THE JOB .GO,GO,GO POE… FIGHT LANG POE!

    Mr. Tatad ..there was no lies in Senator Grace Poe candidacy ..you and her

    rivals continues to put a lot of personal attacks and black propaganda

    that has no valid proof .. it all lies black propaganda .THE PEOPLE

    KNEW IT WAS ALL LIES ,LIES ,LIES you are just fooling yourself… Grace

    Poe is still standing tall unlike your Binay the surveys said ..he is

    going to be kulelat .. LOL.

    Thank
    You Ilococandia for supporting Senator Grace Poe ..Let fight ,fight for
    Grace Poe, in the coming may 09,2016 election ..it is not done yet ,it
    is just starting … yahoo mabuhay si Senator Grace Poe THE ONLY CANDIDATE
    WHO IS UNTAINTED ,SINCERE ,COMPETENT ,RESILIENT ,SMART AND BRAVE TO
    FIGHT FOR THE SAKE OF THE PEOPLE.SHE HAS GOBYERNONG MAY PUSO AT GALIN

  • Lamon Lamon

    huwag tularan si Roxas ,Duterte ,Binay mga corrupt officials ng bansa
    .ibagsak sila ,huwag iboto sa mayo 9,2016 ang mga mandurugas.

    Saan kaya nangulimbat ni digong-gong ang tinatagong yaman sa bangko
    (milliones) sa bangko ..sabi duterte mahirap lang siya ,simple ang
    buhay .. bakit may 211 millions sa bank account siya ?

    IBAGSAK SI DUTERTE MANGUNGULIMBAT NG YAMAN NG MGA PILIPINO .

    Ibagsak ang mga corrupt candidate na si binay ,roxas at si duterte .They are stealing people’s money .

    IBOTO
    NATIN SI SENADORA GRACE POE ..SIYA AY MAPAGKAKATIWALAN ,MATAPANG
    ,HINDI PUMAPATAY ,MARANGAL ,MATALINO AT PATAS LUMABAN .MABUHAY ANG ATING
    PINUNO SA MAY 09,2016 .

    ANG MGA PILIPINO AY HINDI NAMAN TANGA O
    BOBO NA ANG IBOBOTO NILA AY MAY TUPAK ANG KUKUTI NA KAPARIS NI DUTERTE . IBAGSAK ANG DIKTADOR NG DAVAO CITY ..

    KAILANGAN
    NATIN ANG MAY GOBYERNONG MAY PUSO ,MARUNONG MAGMALASAKIT ,MATALINO
    ,MASIPAG AT KAPAKANAN NG MGA NAKAKAMI ANG KANYANG INISIP … IBOTO NATIN
    SI GRACE POE SA MAYO 09,2016. …

    THE VOTERS WITH A DISTURBED MIND
    WILL ONLY VOTE FOR DUDIRTY ..NO WAY A SANE PERSON WILL EVER ELECT A
    PSYCHO /WACKO PERSON IN MALACANANG .WE NEED GRACE POE THE NEXT PRESIDENT
    IN MAY 09,2016. POE WILL GUIDE US IN PROSPERITY.

    IT IS A FACT THAT DUTERTE IS A VERY DANGEROUS LEADER . HE IS
    EXTREMELY
    IMPULSIVE , HE LOVES HIMSELF TOO MUCH .. WITHOUT REMORSE OF THE THINGS
    HE HAD DONE .. HE HAS A TRAIT OF A CRIMINALS .HE IS SICKLY ,ALWAYS WITH
    MIGRAINE HEADACHE .. HE CAN’T WAKE EARLY IN THE MORNING .HE IS ALWAYS
    LATE IN A MEETING .WE NEED GRACE POE IN MALACANANG PALACE IN MA09,2016
    .. SHE IS VERY COMPETENT ,BRAVE ,RESILIENT ,SINCERE ,COMPASSIONATE,SHE
    WALK THE TALK AND SHE IS PHYSICALLY ,MENTALLY AND EMOTIONALLY FIT FOR
    THE JOB .GO,GO,GO POE… FIGHT LANG POE!

    Mr. Tatad ..there was no lies in Senator Grace Poe candidacy ..you and her

    rivals continues to put a lot of personal attacks and black propaganda

    that has no valid proof .. it all lies black propaganda .THE PEOPLE

    KNEW IT WAS ALL LIES ,LIES ,LIES you are just fooling yourself… Grace

    Poe is still standing tall unlike your Binay the surveys said ..he is

    going to be kulelat .. LOL.

    Thank
    You Ilococandia for supporting Senator Grace Poe ..Let fight ,fight for
    Grace Poe, in the coming may 09,2016 election ..it is not done yet ,it
    is just starting … yahoo mabuhay si Senator Grace Poe THE ONLY CANDIDATE
    WHO IS UNTAINTED ,SINCERE ,COMPETENT ,RESILIENT ,SMART AND BRAVE TO
    FIGHT FOR THE SAKE OF THE PEOPLE.SHE HAS GOBYERNONG MAY PUSO AT GALIN

  • Lamon Lamon

    huwag tularan si Roxas ,Duterte ,Binay mga corrupt officials ng bansa
    .ibagsak sila ,huwag iboto sa mayo 9,2016 ang mga mandurugas.

    Saan kaya nangulimbat ni digong-gong ang tinatagong yaman sa bangko
    (milliones) sa bangko ..sabi duterte mahirap lang siya ,simple ang
    buhay .. bakit may 211 millions sa bank account siya ?

    IBAGSAK SI DUTERTE MANGUNGULIMBAT NG YAMAN NG MGA PILIPINO .

    Ibagsak ang mga corrupt candidate na si binay ,roxas at si duterte .They are stealing people’s money .

    IBOTO
    NATIN SI SENADORA GRACE POE ..SIYA AY MAPAGKAKATIWALAN ,MATAPANG
    ,HINDI PUMAPATAY ,MARANGAL ,MATALINO AT PATAS LUMABAN .MABUHAY ANG ATING
    PINUNO SA MAY 09,2016 .

    ANG MGA PILIPINO AY HINDI NAMAN TANGA O
    BOBO NA ANG IBOBOTO NILA AY MAY TUPAK ANG KUKUTI NA KAPARIS NI DUTERTE . IBAGSAK ANG DIKTADOR NG DAVAO CITY ..

    KAILANGAN
    NATIN ANG MAY GOBYERNONG MAY PUSO ,MARUNONG MAGMALASAKIT ,MATALINO
    ,MASIPAG AT KAPAKANAN NG MGA NAKAKAMI ANG KANYANG INISIP … IBOTO NATIN
    SI GRACE POE SA MAYO 09,2016. …

    THE VOTERS WITH A DISTURBED MIND
    WILL ONLY VOTE FOR DUDIRTY ..NO WAY A SANE PERSON WILL EVER ELECT A
    PSYCHO /WACKO PERSON IN MALACANANG .WE NEED GRACE POE THE NEXT PRESIDENT
    IN MAY 09,2016. POE WILL GUIDE US IN PROSPERITY.

    IT IS A FACT THAT DUTERTE IS A VERY DANGEROUS LEADER . HE IS
    EXTREMELY
    IMPULSIVE , HE LOVES HIMSELF TOO MUCH .. WITHOUT REMORSE OF THE THINGS
    HE HAD DONE .. HE HAS A TRAIT OF A CRIMINALS .HE IS SICKLY ,ALWAYS WITH
    MIGRAINE HEADACHE .. HE CAN’T WAKE EARLY IN THE MORNING .HE IS ALWAYS
    LATE IN A MEETING .WE NEED GRACE POE IN MALACANANG PALACE IN MA09,2016
    .. SHE IS VERY COMPETENT ,BRAVE ,RESILIENT ,SINCERE ,COMPASSIONATE,SHE
    WALK THE TALK AND SHE IS PHYSICALLY ,MENTALLY AND EMOTIONALLY FIT FOR
    THE JOB .GO,GO,GO POE… FIGHT LANG POE!

    Mr. Tatad ..there was no lies in Senator Grace Poe candidacy ..you and her

    rivals continues to put a lot of personal attacks and black propaganda

    that has no valid proof .. it all lies black propaganda .THE PEOPLE

    KNEW IT WAS ALL LIES ,LIES ,LIES you are just fooling yourself… Grace

    Poe is still standing tall unlike your Binay the surveys said ..he is

    going to be kulelat .. LOL.

    Thank
    You Ilococandia for supporting Senator Grace Poe ..Let fight ,fight for
    Grace Poe, in the coming may 09,2016 election ..it is not done yet ,it
    is just starting … yahoo mabuhay si Senator Grace Poe THE ONLY CANDIDATE
    WHO IS UNTAINTED ,SINCERE ,COMPETENT ,RESILIENT ,SMART AND BRAVE TO
    FIGHT FOR THE SAKE OF THE PEOPLE.SHE HAS GOBYERNONG MAY PUSO AT GALIN